What Will the New Decade Mean for Higher Education?

As the clock struck midnight and the ball dropped in Times Square, I realized that we had passed an important decade and were entering an even more important one. The ten years from 2000-2009 brought immense change to the world: the 9/11 attack on the world trade center, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the global meltdown, and an era of massive borrowing and foreclosures.

Bush gave way to Obama. China and India rose as major players on the world scene. The household phone gave way to cellular. In technology, we had social networks bloom with Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, and many more. The iPhone, Google Maps, MP3 players, the Wii player, Bluetooth, BlueRay, GPS units on phones and in cars, the Kindle, and eBooks. And, of course, we had Avatar demonstrating the 3-D and simulation technology that will be commonplace in future films.

But how has education changed in the past decade? For the most part, very little. Most teaching still takes place in a classroom with a chalkboard or whiteboard. Teachers and faculty augment lectures with multimedia in their classroom, with PowerPoint presentations and some video. Software for instruction and labs has grown in many fields. Increasingly, faculty are using hybrid and online formats as a regular part of teaching. Expect this to grow even more in the coming decade.

In the next decade, more books (including textbooks) will be read online than on your lap. HD televisions will give way to 3-D TVs. Holographic displays will be used in science and simulation. Most cell phones will have HD projectors and two-way video conferencing. Cars and phones will read your email to you. And, by 2020, new developments in technology, expansion of high speed networks, and dropping prices will make video conferencing available in most K-12 and higher education classrooms.

What will be the Major Trends by 2020 in Higher Education:

1. A Massive Growth in Online Education: The Sloan Foundation projects that online learning will pass face-to-face classroom instruction by 2015. The Chronicle for Higher Education projects that by 2020 as much as 60% of all college credit hours earned will be online. The learner will be able to pick from a variety of courses online to select the most convenient time or format and as needed.

**By 2015, expect to see most classes and most degrees available 24/7 online to laptops, phones, and TVs.

**Several universities already offer free lectures and conferences online. Expect this to grow, with more people watching and learning.

2. Integration of Life and Learning: Education will take place less and less in the classroom. Businesses will encourage employees to take courses to upgrade skills on an as-needed basis, with many courses being received on-site. Education will become more learner-centered and learner-initiated. Life-long learning will increasingly become a reality. Students will be encouraged to use the tools of the internet, social networking, and new technologies to explore learning and to find new sources of data. But, they will also be encouraged to log-off and get engaged in the communities they live in or to visit other countries.

**Just-in-time learning will become common place with learners seeking out knowledge, courses, certificates, and degrees as needed.

**Expect internships, co-ops, and service learning to grow and increasingly to be required for graduation.

3. Transferability and Transportability: Students and their parents are frustrated that they can't transfer courses from one institution to another. There will be increased pressures from states and the federal government to ensure institutions work together on transfer agreements. Europe has already begun this process in more than a dozen majors. The U.S. has been slow to move on this, but will do so over the next decade.

**Expect accreditation bodies and federal regulators to pressure institutions to accept more transfer credits.

**Expect students to shop online for the most affordable, quality courses and take as many as possible, aggregating their courses until they pick one institution that will accept those credits and help them graduate.

4. Growing Crisis of Affordability: Higher Education is pricing itself out of business. Students and parents are tired of paying outrageous tuition to private universities, where tuition, fees and ancillary costs have already topped $40,000. Scholarships are not keeping up with costs. Many flagship public universities are increasing merit-based scholarships at the expense of needs-based aid.

**Enrollments at community colleges and comprehensive universities will grow as students are unable to afford high-priced tuition and are unwilling to assume huge debt to go to more expensive institutions.

**Expect public and private universities to offer some courses for free, or at highly-discounted prices particularly for teachers and high school students.

**Expect most colleges to "give" each student a laptop when they arrive (the price of which is wrapped in tuition and fees) or at least have laptops for check-out.

**In addition, expect more states to adopt legislation to limit tuition increases by public universities.

5. Stack-able Credits: Several community colleges and continuing education programs have already started this on limited basis, but expect this trend to grow. Instead of a 3 hour (3-unit) course taught over 15 weeks, courses in some fields will be divided into modules of 1 hour (1 unit) each or even less (.5 unit). When all modules are completed the learner earns 3-units credit (usually requiring completion of a project, paper, or final).

**Expect institutions to design stack-able courses, certificates and degrees.

6. Compressed Semesters: Universities already offer courses in compressed mode during summer or winter sessions. These courses are usually taught 3 hours per day for 3 weeks. Sometimes, they are taught two nights a week plus two full weekends.

**As more students work full-time, expect more students to demand and more institutions to offer compressed courses and schedules.

7. More Adjunct Faculty: It is a sad fact that the number of tenure-track positions are disappearing rapidly. Nationally, tenure-track faculty represent less than 50% of all faculty positions. Unfortunately, this will continue, as universities are pressed to serve more students with less public funding.

**But, expect universities to increase benefits and pay for adjuncts and to offer more regular contracts.

8. Compressed Degrees and New Incentives: Europe has already moved to three year bachelors degrees and the U.K. is exploring 2 year degrees. Expect pressure to reduce time to degree completion. In the U.S., a little more than a quarter of students in "four-year" universities graduate in four years and a little more than half graduate in six years.

**Expect states to adopt incentives to fund universities based on the number of degrees awarded rather than simply funding universities based on the student credit hours produced.

**Expect expansion of dual-credit courses with more high school students taking college courses and earning certificates and even associate arts degrees before graduating high school.

9. More American Students Studying Abroad American students learn about other countries in their classrooms. Now, they will talk with students from other countries in the class through video conferencing, social networks and Skype.

**Expect more U.S. students to visit other countries, study there, do research and get involved in service projects.

10. The Continuing Crisis for Funding: While the global economic crisis is slowly ending, the crisis in public funding of higher education will intensify. To continue its economic growth and leadership, America will have to confront funding for public higher education. Failure to find proper funding for the growing higher education needs of its population is not an option, unless Americans accept a decline in this country's prestige, power, economic growth, and standard of living.

**Expect institutions to make major cuts in areas ancillary to their main mission. Some will reduce building expansion, particularly as online enrollments grow, but also as some academic programs are merged or eliminated.

**Universities will likely adjust schedules to make more use of existing space (such as offering more classes at night and on weekends).

**Expect to see some institutions with Division I sports (particularly those which are deeply in the red) to move to Division II. Others will jettison certain high-cost sports, such as football. Also, expect national policy discussions to heat up on the BCS and the sky-rocketing cost of collegiate sports--with likely congressional hearings.

**Expect policy discussions over the next decade on a 21st Century Master Plan for American Higher Education--to keep this country strong, to provide real pathways for life-long learning, to invigorate learning with rapid innovations in technologies and software, and to develop the science, technology, and innovation that is heart of this nation's economic engine.

**Finally, expect America to find ways to make it possible for more students to earn their college degrees at an affordable price. We must work together to find mechanisms to keep higher education accessible and affordable. We can't afford not to!

Challenging Times

I think all of us are worried about the future, especially if we have kids or grandchildren. Rising national debt, the pending end of Social Security and Medicare, the so-called 'jobless recovery' of the recession, massive unemployment, declining standards of living, low math and science achievement levels of K-12, and a depressing number of Americans who are losing their jobs, homes and their health care benefits. It's enough to make your head spin.

But, Americans are an optimistic and innovative people. We find solutions. We apply our creative energies. Take higher education. Students, whether they be those coming out of high school or adults needing re-training or a degree, realize that college is beneficial. In this economy, the one segment of the population that has been least likely to lose their jobs during this recession have been those with college degrees.

That doesn't mean that having an A.A., a B.A. or an M.A. will protect you, like some magic shield. Banks and Wall Street firms have closed, laying off thousands of accountants. Engineers are losing jobs at GM, as are line workers in assembly plants. But, in the 21st Century economy, college degrees are as essential as a high degree was in the 20th century.

That's why the massive cuts to higher education taking place in many states are both depressing and short-sighted. Students find few seats available in community colleges and public four-year universities.

Tuition, fees, books, and other costs associated with college have skyrocketed at many institutions. Student and parent indebtedness has risen far faster than income. More students are applying for financial aid and maxing out their credit cards. More parents are taking on second or third mortgages--even selling family possessions to pay for college. And students are working more hours.

Meanwhile, public universities compete for the "best" students and for rankings by U.S. News & World Report that emphasize the number of students a university rejects, rather than the number of working class or minority an institution graduates. So universities, rely more and more on test scores and less and less on need, increasing merit-based scholarships over need.

Don't get me wrong, I encourage merit and believe in raising standards in K-12 and higher education. America cannot compete internationally without improving achievement of our students and ensuring better learning by our students. I believe in rigor and excellence.

But, I am also committed to access and opportunity. I chose to be president of a university like UHD (and was excited to be selected as its president) because it is an urban, engaged, comprehensive university. Its students are overwhelmingly minority (31% Hispanic, 27% African American). It is also a New Generation university. UHD's students are commuters, work 30 hours or more, often have their own families, and usually are the first in their families to go to college.

By the way, UHD remains the best value in higher education in the region. It has one of the lowest tuition and fee structure in Texas combined with wonderful academic programs.

UHD is caught in a dilemma though. We have very little space at our campus. We teach night courses and weekend courses, as well as day courses. The campus is rapidly approaching the maximum size for its buildings. We need more buildings. We need to expand our courses to learning centers throughout Houston and expand our hybrid and online offerings.

But, we also confront our past as we embrace our future. UHD has been an Open Admission university--one of the few remaining in the country. Many of our students are not adequately prepared for college. A vast number of our students fail in the first semester or second semester and drop out. By the 21st day of the third semester, we lose 60% of first-time, full-time freshmen.

Many of these student leave the university with heavy debt (often ranging from $9,000 to $11,000). In addition, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, is concerned that UHD duplicates services better provided by community colleges--at a cheaper cost to the state and to the students.

In addition, the federal government has issued instructions to universities to admit students based on their "ability to benefit." It is concerned that several universities admit students, who then receive financial aid, that lack requisite skills for success. Those students then fail and often are unable to re-pay student loans. Meanwhile, accreditation bodies are increasingly tying re-accreditation to student outcomes as demonstrated in both learning outcomes and graduation rates.

So, the university is beginning a conversation on admission standards. Later this month, State Commissioner, Raymond Paredes, will visit UHD and address these changing needs, This is simply one part of an on-going discussion.

UHD is committed to opportunity, student success, and excellence. That will not change. If and when we adopt admission standards we will not set arbitrary standards, but rather we will adopt standards based on the ability of students to benefit and succeed. Our students will continue to be diverse and heavily first-generation, reflecting Houston.

We will expand our efforts to reach out to students in early grades to mentor them and prepare them for college. We will expand training of teachers and the civic engagement of our undergraduate students in HISD schools, as mentors, tutors, recruiters, and guides. We will expand dual credit and work closely with HISD and other high school districts on early college initiatives. We will expand our partnerships with Houston Community College and Lone Star Community College with joint admission programs.

We will recruit and graduate more students. And, we will continue our commitment to Houston's future. We will continue to be the First Choice of students who desire a university where they can learn and where they can succeed.